Ariel Property AdvisorsNew York City · Q1–Q3 2026
Q1–Q32026

New York City
All Asset
Investment Sales Report

by Ariel Property AdvisorsReleased October 2026
Volume
Q1–Q3 2026 vs Q1–Q3 2025
▲ 9%$23.69BDollar volume
▲ 8%1,914Transactions
▲ 9%2,496Properties
Market Overview

The headline cooled in Q3, but the market held

New York City's investment sales reached $23.69 billion across 1,914 transactions1 and 2,496 properties in the first three quarters of 2026, up 9%, 8% and 9% respectively from a year earlier. The first half did the heavy lifting, with first- and second-quarter dollar volume up 36% and 31% year-over-year, before a summer in which the 10-year Treasury climbed from 4.44% at midyear to above 5% in September, its highest level since 20072, and the Federal Reserve raised rates on September 16.

The third quarter totaled $6.73 billion across 614 transactions, the third consecutive quarter-over-quarter decline since the $13.91 billion peak in the fourth quarter of 2025, and down 25.2% from the third quarter of 2025 even as deal count rose 0.7%. The 25.2% decline is mostly the result of a few very large trades last year, led by the $1.08 billion sale of 590 Madison Avenue, and excluding trades of $250 million or more from both quarters, volume rose 4.0%3.

Capital stayed concentrated. Multifamily, development and office together accounted for nearly three-quarters of the city's dollar volume in the first nine months of the year. Multifamily remained the largest class at $6.99 billion, up 7.9% year-over-year, while development rose 10% to $5.24 billion as builders raced to assemble sites under 485-x, and office, at $5.20 billion, sat just 3% below last year's strong pace but more than double its level two years ago. Special purpose was the biggest mover of the first three quarters, up 88% to $1.93 billion on a handful of large ground-lease and institutional trades.


Comparison Tables

Q1–Q3 2026 by Asset Class

Asset classQ1–Q3 2026 volumevs Q1–Q3 2025Transactionsvs Q1–Q3 2025Propertiesvs Q1–Q3 2025Share of total
Multifamily$6.99B▲ 7.9%1,044▲ 11.5%1,337▲ 14.8%29.5%
MF-MU 10+ resi units$5.00B▲ 5.7%319▲ 9.2%555▲ 15.6%21.1%
MF-MU 6-9 resi units$678.5M▲ 4.3%239▼ 2.8%253▼ 3.4%2.9%
MF-MU Small$1.31B▲ 19.7%486▲ 22.1%529▲ 25.1%5.5%
Development (includes conversions)$5.24B▲ 9.7%326▼ 0.3%493▼ 0.6%22.1%
Office$5.20B▼ 2.8%95▲ 5.6%117▼ 0.8%22.0%
Retail$2.27B▲ 2.5%220▲ 7.3%268▲ 9.8%9.6%
Industrial / WH / Storage$988.3M▲ 3.5%158▲ 10.5%186▼ 0.5%4.2%
Hotel$1.08B▲ 18.4%15▲ 15.4%17▼ 22.7%4.6%
Special Purpose$1.93B▲ 88.4%56▼ 6.7%78▲ 27.9%8.1%
Grand Total$23.69B▲ 9.1%1,914▲ 7.9%2,496▲ 8.9%100%
Source: Ariel Property Advisors. Q1–Q3 2026 includes projected closings. Multifamily includes the building-size rows indented beneath it. Share of total: share of Q1–Q3 2026 dollar volume.
New York City investment-sales activity timeline
Quarterly dollar volume (bars) and transaction count (line), Q1 2020 – Q3 2026
Dollar volume (left, $M)Transactions (right)
Source: Ariel Property Advisors proprietary transaction data. Quarterly totals are APA's published timeline. Q3 2026 figures are preliminary and include projected closings.
Asset Class Breakdown

By asset class · Q1–Q3 2026 vs Q1–Q3 2025

Watchlist

What we're watching into year-end

Rates

A 5% 10-year meets the year-end calendar

With the 10-year above 5% and the Federal Reserve tightening, fixed-rate refinancing and leveraged acquisitions face higher hurdles. Watch whether September's slowdown in securitization carries into the fourth quarter.

Tough comparison

Q4 must match a $13.91 billion quarter

The fourth quarter of 2025 was the strongest quarter in the timeline since 2021, at $13.91 billion. Full-year growth depends on whether large office and land trades in the pipeline close before year-end.

Office

A deep listing pipeline

Large Manhattan offerings, including 10 Bryant Park, the 7 Times Square ground lease and the Helmsley Building, test whether record leasing translates into trophy pricing.

Rent-stabilized housing

The freeze reaches leases

The rent freeze took effect October 1. Watch for more discounted loan sales by banks and distressed sales of regulated portfolios.

Policy

The pied-à-terre tax heads to court

The pied-à-terre tax is rolling out while an appeals court reviews how it was implemented, with a ruling due by November 10, and two lawsuits, including one by Wilbur Ross and Steve Wynn, seek to strike it down. First payments are due January 1, 2027, and expiring abatements and November's state election round out the policy backdrop.

Sources & Notes

Footnotes & definitions

  1. All dollar-volume, transaction and property figures are from Ariel Property Advisors' proprietary transaction database. Q1–Q3 2026 totals incorporate projected closings for the end of the period, and third-quarter 2026 figures are the Q1–Q3 total less the first and second quarters. ↩
  2. Treasury yields, Federal Reserve action and securitization volumes: Commercial Mortgage Alert, March 20 – October 2, 2026. ↩
  3. Ariel Property Advisors analysis of recorded trades of $250 million or more: five totaling $3.08 billion in Q3 2025 and two totaling $568 million in Q3 2026. ↩
  4. Jonathan Miller via The Real Deal, October 2026. Loan sale: Bloomberg, July 2026. ↩
  5. Crain's New York Business, September 2026. ↩
  6. Ariel Property Advisors Research, NYC development pipeline analysis, Q1–Q3 2026, based on initial NYC Department of Buildings new-building filings (net new units) and 485-x filings for Q1 2026. ↩
  7. Ariel Property Advisors analysis of NYC ACRIS deed and mortgage records, January–September 2024–2026. ↩
  8. S&P Global Ratings pre-sale report, January 8, 2026, CMBS ticker SLG 2026-PAT. Manhattan office availability, absorption and sublease space: CBRE Research, Manhattan Office Figures, Q3 2026. 10 East 53rd Street occupancy: Ariel Property Advisors Research, August 11, 2026. ↩
  9. CBRE Research, Manhattan Retail Figures, Q3 2026. ↩
  10. Ariel Property Advisors Research, July 15, 2026. ↩
  11. Ariel Property Advisors Research, September 30, 2026. Piece of Cake purchase: Crain's New York Business, June 25, 2026. Prologis purchase: Traded Media. ↩
  12. Ariel Property Advisors Research, October 6, 2026. Occupancy: New York State Comptroller via Commercial Observer, July 17, 2026. Union contract and operating costs: The Real Deal and The Wall Street Journal, May 2026. DiamondRock sale: DiamondRock Hospitality release, May 8, 2026. ↩
  13. Commercial Observer, July 20, 2026. Manhattan Country School sale: Bloomberg, June 26, 2026. Pied-à-terre litigation: Ariel Property Advisors Research, September 30 and October 7, 2026. ↩
About the Report

Ariel Property Advisors

Our approach

Ariel's unique company structure, with separate groups for Investment Sales, Capital Services, and Research, ensures outstanding service for our clients. Whether implementing a strategic marketing process, compiling a comprehensive asset evaluation, securing financing, or providing timely market information, every assignment is served by a team of specialized professionals.

Report authors

This research report was compiled by:

For more information contact Gail Donovan · 212.544.9500 ext. 19 · gdonovan@arielpa.com

To quote this report, please cite: "New York City All Asset Investment Sales Report Q1–Q3 2026 by Ariel Property Advisors", arielpa.nyc/investor-relations/research-reports