Northern Manhattan
Commercial Real Estate Trends

Banks

Banks delivered renewed growth and more flexible terms. The commercial real estate loan holdings of the top 100 U.S. banks grew 5.0% in 2025 to $1.78 trillion as stabilized rates and stronger balance sheets allowed new deals to clear approval hurdles. This growth concentrated in fundamentally strong asset classes, with multifamily loan holdings expanding 7.7% year-over-year to $451.8 billion and commercial loans rising 7.0% to $1.07 trillion. On the transaction side, increased lender competition is driving borrower-friendly terms. Banks have begun loosening covenants for income-producing multifamily assets and offering incremental underwriting flexibility, pushing average fixed-rate permanent loan LTVs to 64.4% as they pursue cash-flowing properties.

Regional banks are repositioning around New York rent-regulated exposure. Following the June 1 merger of OceanFirst Bank and Flushing Financial, the newly combined bank agreed to sell approximately $1.4 billion of multifamily loans largely backed by rent-stabilized properties in the New York metro area, eliminating the majority of its exposure to rent-regulated housing. Shortly thereafter, the bank completed a secondary sale in June, unloading a $327 million small-balance CRE portfolio.

Agency Lenders

Agency lending carried its 2H 2025 momentum straight into 2026. This momentum aligns directly with the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s (FHFA) expansionary framework for the year, which raised the 2026 multifamily loan purchase caps by 20.5% to $176 billion. Lenders aggressively utilized this runway out of the gate, with Fannie Mae generating $17.1 billion and Freddie Mac generating $13.0 billion in multifamily loan volume during Q1 2026 alone, marking massive year-over-year gains of 45% and 30%, respectively.

Two policy items bear watching. FHFA Director Bill Pulte’s appointment as acting head of national intelligence has raised concern about timeline delays for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac recapitalization efforts, given his split administrative focus. Meanwhile, a major legislative hurdle for the single-family rental space was resolved with the enactment of the ROAD to Housing Act. While an earlier Senate-added provision threatened to force institutional build-to-rent (BTR) owners to divest within seven years, which briefly caused the agencies to pause originations, the final law stripped this requirement entirely, clearing the way for both Fannie and Freddie to resume lending on BTR properties.

CMBS

The securitization market set a post-GFC first-quarter record in Q1 2026. Combined issuance across private-label CMBS, CRE CLOs, and agency deals reached $70.8 billion, a 19.9% year-over-year increase. This growth was led by agency paper (+77.8%) and CRE CLOs (+73.6% to $14.5 billion), while private-label CMBS fell 12.4% to $32.9 billion, largely reflecting a lapping of 2025's exceptional conduit pace rather than weak demand. Single-asset, single-borrower deals dominated at roughly 75% of private-label volume, pushing year-to-date U.S. CMBS issuance to $62.8 billion by mid-June. This activity highlights structural resilience in the face of geopolitical volatility.

Alternative Lenders

Private credit went from filling gaps to setting the pace. Debt funds and other alternative credit platforms accounted for 53% of all non-agency commercial loan closings in Q1 2026, a dramatic surge from their roughly 25% market share in 2025. Superior execution speed and structural adaptability successfully won the refinancing pipeline that conventional banks, constrained by conservative leverage limits, were unable to service. This expansion tracks the broader institutionalization of the global private credit market, which grew to $2.1 trillion at year-end 2025 and is projected to scale past $2.3 trillion by the end of 2026.

The capital base behind the strategy keeps setting records. High-yield real estate debt funds reached record highs for the fourth straight year, with $75.2 billion closed (up 5%) and a record $56.5 billion of dry powder across 82 managers. Crucially, these vehicles continue to deliver robust risk-adjusted performance, with high-yield CRE debt returning 9.07% on a rolling 12-month basis (Giliberto-Levy G-L2) against a default rate of just 0.97%. A survey of 196 high-yield lenders found that most expect to increase financing volumes in 2026, underpinned by strong institutional demand for subordinate debt products.

Construction Lenders

Bank construction lending continues to contract - alternative and foreign capital sources are filling the void. A sharp divide defines the 1H 2026 construction lending market as domestic bank credit remains restricted. While top-tier domestic institutions limit development exposure to insulate themselves from multi-year macro forecasts, alternative lenders and foreign banks are aggressively stepping up. Foreign banks grew their U.S. construction books 12.6% and alternative lenders continue to compete on structure, offering longer initial terms as competition for well-capitalized sponsors intensified.

New York’s residential pipeline is reawakening, powered by 485-x and 467-m. Capital flows into ground-up rentals and office-to-residential conversions have surged following the implementation of the 485-x and 467-m tax programs, which restored the underwriting metrics needed to offset high financing costs. This regulatory runway has unlocked massive capital allocations across the boroughs.

Preferred Equity / Mezzanine

Subordinate capital has completed its evolution from rescue tool into a standard component in the capital stack. 2025 marked a clear transition year; lenders are no longer simply extending loan terms. Instead, they are forcing resolutions on the $875 billion in CRE debt maturing in 2026 and $652 billion coming due in 2027, a massive wave of maturities that is actively driving new origination and transaction activity. Preferred equity and mezzanine debt have emerged as the primary vehicles bridging the gap between conservative senior lending limits and the total leverage required to retire these legacy, low-rate loans.