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Ariel Property Advisors proudly presents
Coffee & Cap Rates℠ - Sponsored by Berdon LLP  •  July 23, 2020
What to Expect in 2020 for NYC Real Estate After Covid-19
Ariel Property Advisors’ Coffee & Cap Rates - Sponsored by Berdon LLP

Over 300 real estate professionals attended the webinar on July 23rd, featuring a panel of some of New York City’s most influential real estate executives.

Following a brief presentation from event host Shimon Shkury, President of Ariel Property Advisors, on our latest data-based research and insights on the real estate market across New York City, a panel of experienced industry experts discussed the current market environment and performance predictions for the rest of the calendar year.

Q&A from the webinar

Q: Do you expect to have more residential built in-lieu of commercial/retail in new upcoming developments that allows for mixed use? Assuming that the retail will take a long time to recover, how would it affect the financing of such a development...?

A: It is hard to tell at this point and it makes sense that more residential units will come online in lieu of commercial. Lenders today aren’t giving full credit for commercial tenants so it does hurt financing.

Q: Is there concern regarding the uptick on crime / shootings?

A: This is a great point, crime in the city and the general political environment is a concern for current NYC investors and needs to be addressed.

Q: It looked like from your graph that residential housing in Manhattan has gone down from about $1,000 PSF to about $800 PSF, or about a 20% reduction. Is this true for a rent-stabilized property, or would there be a different reduction in value?

A: The values that were on a graph are a blended average of free-market buildings and rent-stabilized buildings.

Q: Can you give us a rough idea of what you think the cap rate percentage will increase by in the first 6 months of 2021 vs at the start of 2020 due to COVID-19 related factors?

A: There is no generalization on cap rates because all buildings are different and depend on things like location, size, unit status, etc. However, statistically, we expect cap rates to expand .50%.

Q: What kind of concessions are you offering commercial tenants? Is the good guy notice still the norm?

A: The good guy notice is still in effect.

Q: What about the tight spaces people are living in. If I am living with a family of 4 in a one-bedroom, I do not want to wake up and work from the same room my kids are running in.

A: We understand, and believe that you are correct. This is the reason that we think that office space will come back once COVID-19 disappears.

Watch Webinar Recording


James O'Neal

James O'Neal

Executive Director - Legal Outreach

Market Insights Presentation

Shimon Shkury

Shimon Shkury

President - Ariel Property Advisors

Panel Discussion

Jim Simmons

Jim Simmons

CEO & Founding Partner of Asland Capital Partners
Rick Gropper

Rick Gropper

Co-Principal at Camber Realty Group
Etan Slomovic

Etan Slomovic

Managing Director, Investments at Castellan Real Estate Partners
Meyer Mintz

Meyer Mintz

Tax Partner at Berdon LLP

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