At its March meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50% to 3.75%, though the decision was not unanimous, as one member voted for a 25-basis-point cut. The Fed’s latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) showed several key indicators unchanged from the December SEP: 12 of the 19 participants still anticipate at least one rate cut this year and the median projection for the end of 2026 remained at 3.4% for the funds rate and 4.4% for unemployment. However, growth and inflation expectations shifted slightly upward, with median GDP projections rising to 2.4% (from 2.3%) and core PCE inflation climbing to 2.7% (from 2.5%).

Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that while economic indicators have been positive, “...the implications of events in the Middle East for the U.S. economy are uncertain. In the near term, higher energy prices will push up overall inflation, but it is too soon to know the scope and duration of the potential effects on the economy. We will continue to monitor the risks to both sides of our mandate.”

Beyond the Noise: The Strength of Today’s Financing Pipeline

“Despite the noise from global events in recent weeks, our acquisition and refinancing pipeline continues to be extremely active,” said Ben Schlegel, Senior Director of the Capital Services Group, which arranges debt and equity for properties throughout the U.S.

“Developers in New York City are continuing to build condos in prime submarkets as listing inventory tightened in the final quarter of 2025,” Schlegel said, citing the latest Elliman Reports for Manhattan and Brooklyn. Of the $7 billion in total development sales citywide last year, $2.4 billion was dedicated specifically to condominiums, a clear signal of lender confidence in the asset class.

“We’re also seeing financing activity in the rent stabilized market for buildings in good locations with strong rents,” Schlegel said. “The Capital Services team recently negotiated a non-recourse loan for the acquisition of a 75% rent stabilized building in Upper Manhattan with a sub-6% rate and 70 LTV.”

New York City multifamily sales totaled $8.91 billion last year with over 40% of the transactions and 18% of the dollar volume for buildings with 75% rent stabilized units, according to Ariel Property Advisors’ Multifamily Year In Review New York City 2025. Buyers are attracted to these assets because of the low basis.

• A $12.35 million acquisition loan for the purchase of a 108-room Hampton Inn & Suites hotel in Dodge City, Kansas, that featured a fixed-rate loan from a regional balance sheet lender with a 6.5% interest rate and 25-year amortization. Although hotels were nearly impossible to finance several years ago, this deal attracted half a dozen qualified competitive quotes.
• A $6.85 million construction loan at 75% LTC from a private lender to finance a 10,000 SF development with eight units in Long Island City, Queens.
• A $4 million refinance loan from a credit union for a 5,200 SF mixed-use building with eight units in Greenpoint, Brooklyn. Terms included a 6.25% rate and 70% LTV.
• A $1.6 million acquisition loan from a credit union to purchase an 11,200 SF, 19-unit multifamily building in Portland, Oregon. Terms of the five-year loan included a 5.75% rate and 75% LTC.

The New Appeal of Private Credit Underwriting

Schlegel noted that the market activity is possible because there is an abundance of capital looking for a home.

“Over the last six to 12 months, we’ve seen lenders aggressively pursue opportunities and new players come into the market,” he said.

Private credit firms have been particularly active, dropping their pricing since the beginning of the year into the 5% range and offering 5-, 7-, and 10-year fixed-rate debt that is directly competing with traditional sources like banks, agencies and the CMBS market, Schlegel said. This newfound competitiveness is bolstered by highly attractive terms, including full-term interest-only options and a shift toward more common-sense underwriting.

Schlegel added, “Ultimately, private credit has evolved into a formidable permanent financing solution, providing borrowers with the flexibility and pricing once reserved for more conventional institutions.”

Resilience in the Face of Macroeconomic Uncertainty

The current lending landscape proves that while macroeconomic “noise“ persists, so far the market remains hungry for the right opportunities. From Manhattan condo developments to hospitality ventures in America’s heartland, the Capital Markets team has continued to demonstrate that competitive financing is available to help borrowers navigate the shifting global economy.